Key Points

• NatureQuant analyzed data from the 500 largest U.S. counties by population and found that lower amounts of Nature, as determined by an average NatureScore® for the area, was predictive of higher levels of cumulative COVID-19 cases on a per-capita basis.
• Maximum cumulative CV-19 cases per capita by county was 4.0%, with an average of 0.45%.
• While population density was the strongest predictor of cases per capita, after controlling for population density, NatureScore® had a statistically significant association with infection rates. (The multiple-R of population density and NatureScore® with infection rates was 0.44).

The Link

Experts have long known that the “magic airs” of natural areas can act as both a prevention and cure for various diseases. During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, scientists discovered that patients treated outdoors in natural areas recovered faster than those treated indoors. And just recently, Harvard’s School of Public Health reported that air-pollution (which is highly correlated to cities) predicts higher death rates from COVID-19. Vitamin D levels also appear to play a role in COVID-19 mortality rates, with patients with severe deficiency twice as likely to experience major complications.

While many theories exist for how nature prevents and treats illnesses--from increasing sun exposure and phytoncides, to lowering stress, to simply decreasing human-made hazards--a growing body of data indicates a clear influence of nature on our biology and psychology (See NatureQuant's whitepaper for more detail).

In light of this background, as COVID-19 cases spread, NatureQuant endeavored to determine if the infection rates (as determined on a county per-capita basis) were associated with the volume of nature in a given county.

While this data will provide more meaningful insight after the pandemic concludes, as of July 2020, higher NatureScore® appear to be linked to a slower spread of the coronavirus.

NatureQuant analyzed data from the 500 largest U.S. counties by population and found that increased volumes of nature predicted a lower per-capita infection rate. The NatureScore® is a technology system designed to measure the quantity and quality of natural elements for a given area; while it is typically applied to a single location (for example, a home or business site), the average of the entire county area was employed for purposes of this analysis.

Population per square mile was the strongest predictor of infection rates in the analysis. NatureScores® are inversely correlated with population density, meaning higher population density is indicative of less nature; still, after controlling for population density levels, nature levels also showed a strong association. In short, among counties with the same population density, more nature predicted less CV-19 cases.

NatureQuant CEO Jared Hanley explained that these results are just the beginning of the company’s work to leverage its data tools to help understand the pandemic: “While many factors influence how COVID-19 spreads, we are not at all surprised that nature levels provide a strong marker for infection rates. We hope to strengthen our analysis as we get more precise infection data by location and more time under our belts.”

Chris Minson, NatureQuant’s Chief Science Officer, added, “While it is too early to hypothesize about how nature directly influences disease transmission and mortality rates, our small study is just another piece of a growing body of scientific literature that makes a strong argument for further investigation into these links.”

Many Americans seem to be fleeing cities amid COVID-19 concerns. Nearly a third of Americans are considering moving out of cities in the wake of the pandemic, according to new data from Harris Poll. In response, city planners may also strive to ensure that open, natural areas are available to all residents.